What is this Covid, Actually?

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
Step out of line, the man come and take you away -

                        Stephen Stills: For What It’s Worth Dec 1966

Here are a few thoughts around where we might be in the current debate about what Covid is, and the place of vaccines as a benign countermeasure to any effects it engenders. We might start with the idea that a serious disease has for some reason spread across the world and is causing a significant number of deaths as well as serious illness. A small but significant minority of people refute this, but if we wish to pursue a realistic debate, we must start with the assumption that a disease named Covid-19 exists and warrants investigation (qua Stephen Stills "There's something happening here/What it is ain't exactly clear).  

So, is it clear? Is there any mileage in the view that this Covid 'pandemic' created from nothing but the authoritative voice of government and media? Could this be another plank in the ongoing construction of one of the greatest acts of sleight of hand, 'bait-and-switch' or whatever you like to call it in the history of the world?  

My instincts in March 2020 at the beginning, when looking at the UK figures for Hong Kong flu in 1968, were that the 1968 (and 1957) events were deadly indeed but had by no means been the subject of co-ordinated and prolonged lockdowns and general governmental push towards mask-wearing and social distancing. Why then were the prospects in this latest event any different?  

By May 2020 it was way too soon to compare the numbers, but H3N2 had at that time seemed to have proved deadlier than COVID-19. Between 1968 and 1970, the Hong Kong flu killed between an estimated 1 and 4 million, according to the CDC and Encyclopaedia Britannica, with US deaths exceeding 100,000, and the UK 30.000. In May 2020 Covid 19 had reportedly killed around 295,000 globally and around 83,000 in the United States.   

Do we trust these figures? Between 1 and 4 million seems to be a meaningless statement, for example, but in a half hour of research trawling many websites, I could find no consistently authoritative numbers.   

Here for example is what GAVI says "In terms of the number of deaths COVID-19 has caused (349,095 as of 27 May 2020), it is actually more comparable with previous flu pandemics. The Asian flu in 1957-1958 killed an estimated 1.1 million people, close to the 1 million people thought to have been killed by the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968-1970". Not 4 million, then?  

We can read in Wikipedia that “worldwide deaths from the so called Hong Kong virus peaked in December 1968 and January 1969”. At the time, public health warnings and virus descriptions had been widely issued in the scientific and medical journals. In Berlin, the excessive number of deaths led to corpses being stored in subway tunnels, and in West Germany, garbage collectors had to bury the dead because of a lack of undertakers. In total, East and West Germany registered 60,000 estimated deaths. In some areas of France, half of the workforce was bedridden, and manufacturing suffered large disruptions because of absenteeism. The UK postal and rail services were also severely disrupted.   

But do we look back on the years 1968-1970 and see panic, lockdowns and endless debates about vaccinations and controls? In the West, certainly we do not. These years were populated by seismic events, such as the Apollo moonwalk, Prague Spring, the escalating war and TET offensive in Vietnam, Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King assassinations, Woodstock, student demonstrations especially in Paris but elsewhere, the Ohio University campus shootings…  

The World Health Organization estimated the case fatality rate of Hong Kong flu to be lower than 0.2%. The disease was allowed to spread through the population without overarching restrictions on economic activity, and a vaccine created by American microbiologist Maurice Hilleman and his team became available four months after it had started. (More about Hilleman follows below).  

Meantime, in current Covid-19 global up to date figures using Worldometer, the reported deaths worldwide currently is 4.5 million. (Sept 2021). This is 0.058% of the global population. 0.2% UK.0.198 % USA 0.16% Sweden (Using Worldometer figs for deaths and population).    

However, we know that the UK presents its figures as deaths with Covid within 28 days of a positive test.  Are we clear what India does? Or China? Or Brazil? Do the Worldometer figures address these different approaches to data collection and interpretation? And indeed, finally, and crucially, how many deaths have actually been prevented by the waves of draconian measures put in place by governments worldwide? It ain't exactly clear.  

What is clear is that distance lends a kind of perspective. The last truly devastating global pandemic was incontrovertibly the so-called Spanish Flu post 1918. The world was at that time already in tremulous shock. That pandemic simply ripped through populations already traumatised. It created a new fractured politics, a new fractured art. However which way we look at the current sets of data, the effects of current pandemic - in terms of illness and death - bears no relation at all to the 1918 devastations. That is exactly clear.  

And so to vaccines.   

Maurice Hilleman was a difficult beast, but massively influential as a vaccinologist at a time when the zeitgeist did not challenge the concept in the way in which we are led to believe today. He is now more or less faded into obscurity. But in his story in the late 1960s, we have many of the elements repeated in today's melange of activity: angst, virtue-driven certitude, mutations, quickly developed vaccines, maverick scientists, conflicting political and medical opinion.  

Interestingly we read this about Hilleman in a 2005 Obituary: [ BMJ Obituary republished in the National Library of Medicine https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC557162/   

"Hilleman characterised several viruses and identified changes that could result when a virus mutated. This concept, which he worked out while at the Walter Reed Institute of Army Research, helped prevent a huge pandemic of Hong Kong flu in 1957. Learning that the flu was a new strain, 40 million doses of vaccine were rapidly made available in the United States."  

"Hilleman's style of working was iconoclastic. Dr Offit said, “To give you an example of how he worked, in 1963, [when his daughter had the classic symptoms of the mumps,] he swabbed the back of his daughter's throat, brought it to the lab to culture, and by 1967, there was a vaccine.” He added, “Today's regulation would preclude that from happening... If Maurice was alive today, I doubt he would be able to be Maurice. He was a very strong-willed person and a person like him could face a high level of inertia.”  

"During his more than 60 years in basic and applied research, he earned a reputation as an often harsh , impatient fellow who tangled with industry and government bureaucracies. Hilleman defended his pushy and prickly behaviour (today also we might say deeply sexist), which offended some colleagues and co-workers, as crucial for science to advance. He argued that politics, not science, determined which breakthroughs were brought to the marketplace".  

And so in the space of 60-odd years, it seems we have a complete volte-face of the public perception about the deployment, and the constitution of vaccines. The mavericks today are named Montagnier, Yeadon, McCullough, Raoult, Fuellmich, Zelenko.....  

In the current marketplace of opinion (for many opinions are indeed monetised via (anti)-social media and burgeoning video platforms), debates are intense. We might look at the assertion that most of the vaccinated population have no idea of the substance they are allowing into their bodies. Or perhaps very little idea. This, of course is incontrovertible. But whether this is a reason alone to vilify the current crop of vaccines, produced in circumstances which are familiar to mainstream virologists, is absurd. The bigger picture is how medicine has become compromised since the development of a post-enlightenment science-based medical establishment, and petroleum-based solutions which have overtaken and more-or-less supplanted natural and holistic medical practice. How to understand and respond to this is a matter for individual conscience. In a free society, this remains a right and is the source of discussion, such as this one.   

Aside from people of faith, for most people living in the maelstrom of modern existence, when defining how we stabilise as best we can, the health of nations, there can be trust in the authority of the day which is paid for through the Social Contract (whether this be via taxation, or democratic affirmation of the majority, or tribal acquiescence). Or we can develop and act upon our  individual knowledge of the workings of viral vectors, mRNA and their relationship to spike proteins et. al. and so act independently according to individual conscience. The perspective of history tells us that this pragmatic approach to medicine - with all the checks and balances of scientific understanding - saves lives and improves the prospects of millions. 

That is the balance which we inhabit in the modern era. But what is new, of course, is the prospect of the weaponizing by governments of the binary between vaccinated and unvaccinated, and between the tested and untested. This set of notes ends where that discussion starts. But the mood music in the airwaves is not promising.   

September 9th 2021

Update: December 27th 2021 : Here we are in the UK.

Recent UK Government announcements on  Covid Passport interventions in the everyday, neatly summed up in terms of Identification Document Validation Technology (IDVT).

For What It's Worth 

Buffalo Springfield. Released December 1966 

There's something happening here

But what it is ain't exactly clear

There's a man with a gun over there

Telling me I got to beware 

I think it's time we stop

Children, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

There's battle lines being drawn

Nobody's right if everybody's wrong

Young people speaking their minds

Getting so much resistance from behind 

It's time we stop

Hey, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

What a field day for the heat  

A thousand people in the street  

Singing songs and they carrying signs   

Mostly say, "Hooray for our side"   

It's time we stop

Hey, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

Paranoia strikes deep

Into your life it will creep

It starts when you're always afraid

Step out of line, the man come and take you away 

We better stop

Hey, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

You better stop

Hey, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

You better stop

Now, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down? 

You better stop

Children, what's that sound?

Everybody look, what's going down?   

Songwriter: Stephen Stills For What It's Worth lyrics © Cotillion Music Inc., Ten-east Music, Springalo Toones, Ten East Music, Richie Furay Music, Cotillion Music, Inc.  

Peter Green

Peter Green was a brilliant team player. As well as a gentle soul and unique genius.

The original Fleetwood Mac demonstrates this in spades: 3 brilliant guitarists with their own unique styles, with the solid Fleetwood/McVie rhythm section holding it all down.

The Peter Green Splinter Group saw the man re-emerging with all the old powers in place, with a band of musical excellence and mutual nurture.

 Examples:

The original Fleetwood Mac at their zenith  

The Peter Green Splinter Group 2003:

[  YouTube Link:  Copyright reasons disallow the video itself to be embedded here, sorry! ]

Behind the music there are all those stories. And in the music, and its inter-song presentation in the second video, there is food for woke vigilantes to chew on.

None of it matters. There is transcendence here.

Island Records - Portrait of an Iconic Label

Artists such as U2, Roxy Music, Jethro Tull, King Crimson, Bob Marley and - initially and exceptionally: Millie Small - all have one major, creative platform in common - a unique record label founded in 1959. This record label, in spite of being swallowed up 20 years ago by Polydor and subsequently enveloped into the Universal brand, remains a byword for independent creativity. This was Island Records, founded in Kingston, Jamaica by Chris Blackwell and despite a modest beginning pressing discs on borrowed equipment at a nearby radio station and scratching together some office space on a tiny budget, the business grew following a move to London in 1962, bringing with it a consolidation of the new wave of ska and American R&B which lit a fuse in drab late-fifties / early 60's Britain.

Historians will say of course, that it was with the Beatles and the Mersey Sound, that popular music suddenly woke up to itself after the initial flush of Mid-50's Rock & Roll had long since waned into a balladeering wasteland and a renewed mish-mash of tame hybrid styles geared to "family entertainment" - and of course there is no doubt that that the early Mersey sound crashed through all this big-time. But this was also a period of a massive cross-fertilisation of styles, and for Island Records, the first big event was to achieve a crossover for ska music into the mainstream via a crackling, populist yet unquestionably "different" sound - Millie Small's "My Boy Lollipop" - a smash hit in 1964 and a harbinger of things to come in terms of breaking new acts with styles which were uniquely ahead of the curve of what was acceptably mainstream.

Thus 3 years after this, Island was focussing on Blues-based rock music / psychedelic folk crossovers from a crop of white musicians including the extraordinary John Martyn as well as Free (a major act of the festival circuit), Spooky Tooth and Stevie Winwood's Traffic. Later came progressive bands such as King Crimson and Jethro Tull featuring a demonic Ian Anderson fronting up with that archetypal rock music instrument - the flute!

By the late 60's the label was signing a wave of eclectic folk acts including Dr Strangely Strange, Nick Drake and Fairport Convention - each hugely individual and influential - and shortly afterwards adding a strand of art-pop to the mix, via Bryan Ferry's Roxy Music.

But of course, it does not stop there. Moving back to its Jamaican roots, the label signed a band locally feted in hometown Jamaica called Bob Marley and the Wailers. Convinced that they had found a "black rock star as big as Hendrix", according to Chris Blackwell, Island Records invested heavily on his instincts and produced Marley's first album "Catch a Fire". History was made. Soon, Bob Marley was to become Island Records' biggest selling act.

Following this reassertion of reggae as a musical force, many reggae acts followed, including Burning Spear, Toots and the Maytals and Steel Pulse. But alongside these were also Robert Palmer, Grace Jones and Tom Waits - and more tellingly, from the Dublin connections which started with Dr Strangely Strange and which influenced the development of acts such as Thin Lizzy, Island signed a new and raw act called U2 , who were, of course, to become the stellar rock act of the 1980's and some would say beyond.

The influence of Island Records is thus there for all to see. When looking at the major waves of creative forces against the explosive backdrop of changing popular music tastes in the decades after the 1960's, attention is grabbed by labels such as Island Records. Such labels took the commercial chances which ensured a raft of creative flowerings, and regular, risk-embracing forays into uncharted waters of creativity.

See iconic Rock Music Photography, including several Island Records acts at Rockarchive.com

Images from a Shed

Here are a few pictures/sketches which emerged from my shed at Benjamins Cottage in Kelling in 2013. I confess to a certain nostalgia for the shed, the location, the quietude.

The song is “Shady Lane” by Snowgoose. I found it on the July 2012 “Now Hear This” compilation of new releases which came with the now sadly defunct “Word” music magazine. This was a fine publication: music old and new, with in-depth interviews and  deep knowledge delivered with panache.

 .

Sanctus from the Missa Luba

 It is possible that you have to be of a certain age to know about this music, or at least, to know how people became aware of it in the late 1960s. It is a haunting and other-wordly sound; a Latin Mass based on traditional Congolese songs. It came into popular mainstream through the 1968 Lindsay Anderson movie “If…”, with Malcolm McDowell’s character Mick Travis playing it over and over , his personal soundtrack to an ethereal, adolescent cool in the buttoned-up world of the traditional public school. 

I remember finding a copy on a 45rpm single in the HMV record shop in London’s Oxford Street. I was 6 years out of boarding school, but had seen this movie whilst still ensconced in that peculiar world. I had to buy that disc, just for the memory, and I have it still.

About “If.. – the Movie

Violins in the Modern Era

Popular music in the 20s and 30s, especially dance music, had the violin as an essential ingredient. At least 2 or 3 violins could be heard in a typical dance orchestra. Society bands would often include as many as 6 or 7. But in the mid 1930s, the Swing sound had arrived in the US, and soon all stringed instruments including the violin became surplus to needs. Since the 1960s, of course, the guitar and bass guitar has reigned supreme in pop and rock music. But the merging of folk with rock sounds in the late 1960s and early 1970s,meant that once again the sound of violin strings became part of the mix. Since then and over time in the 1970s, the arrival of disco also meant the inclusion of strings in the overall sound. But with advent of synthesiser in the 1980s, the violin lost its way for a time, whilst emulated string sounds reigned supreme.

But now the violin has made its comeback, and is being increasingly part of a new wave of mainstream pop. Independent artists such as Final Fantasy (aka Owen Pallett - example here) and Andrew Bird have developed a focused style, creating a subcategory of indie rock called “violindie”.

A favourite for me: Andrew Bird and “Danse Caribe on the album Break it Yourself 

Age, Art and Withering

The Coming of Wisdom with Time

(Published 1916)

Though leaves are many, the root is one;

Through all the lying days of my youth

I swayed my leaves and flowers in the sun;

Now I may wither into the truth

  - W.B. Yeats (1865-1939)

We learn today that David Bowie has released a new record after 10 years. I was never a fan in his earlier incarnations, though was aware of the effect he was having on the new wave of youth which I was already leaving behind at the time. And because his music is woven now into the fabric of the past 45 years, it is impossible to deny his brilliance, and the huge paradox of his revolutionary, esoteric art combined with his appeal to a huge mass audience.

I really like this song “Where are we now”, which is an honest exploration of how it is to start feeling older. The video with it is extraordinary. No vanity, much depth. I particularly like the images of Berlin in the late 1970s, where Bowie lived for 3 years.  I feel lucky to have had several trips there in the same era.  Didn’t see him though!

The announcement of Bowie’s  record was on BBC news in the morning. In the same programme they had Andrew Motion on to talk about a Poetry competition for teenagers. At the end of the interview, and weaving in an earlier comment about age and Bowie, he chose a Hardy poem, which I found I half-remembered as I had learnt it verbatim for my college exams.

I Look Into My Glass
(Published 1898)

I look into my glass,
And view my wasting skin,
And say, "Would God it came to pass
My heart had shrunk as thin!"

For then I, undistrest
By hearts grown cold to me,
Could lonely wait my endless rest
With equanimity.

But Time, to make me grieve,
Part steals, lets part abide;
And shakes this fragile frame at eve
With throbbings of noontide.
 - Thomas Hardy (1840-1928)

No withering into the truth there, then.

Oddly enough, as part of the focus of past couple of days, on themes of growing older, I was looking at some poems of Yeats, including the short 4-liner above. This one seemed highly appropriate

An Acre Of Grass
(Published 1939)

Picture and book remain,
An acre of green grass
For air and exercise,
Now strength of body goes;
Midnight, an old house
Where nothing stirs but a mouse.

My temptation is quiet.
Here at life's end
Neither loose imagination,
Nor the mill of the mind
Consuming its rag and bone,
Can make the truth known.

Grant me an old man's frenzy,
Myself must I remake
Till I am Timon and Lear
Or that William Blake
Who beat upon the wall
Till Truth obeyed his call;

A mind Michael Angelo knew

That can pierce the clouds, 

Or inspired by frenzy

Shake the dead in their shrouds;

Forgotten else by mankind, 

An old man's eagle mind.
   - W.B. Yeats (1865-1939)

This was part of his “Last Poems”  written in 1939, the year of Yeats’ death, and 20 years after “The Coming of Wisdom with Time” (1919) . Here, rather than withering, he is calling out in his old age, to become like these raging figures of old, who “beat upon the wall” to get truth to show itself, so that he can express it, externalise it (in poetry).  for fear that his “eagle mind” is forgotten to posterity.

Random thoughts.